First destination: South Korea
You might think, “But League of Legends, the predecessor of Wild Rift, has been hugely successful here,” and while this is true, the reality is not as simple as 1 + 1 = 2; in fact, in this case, it might even be 1 + 1 = negative!
Specifically, the issue arises from the mindset of Korean players. They highly regard the skill factor in esports, and PC games are the most prominent platform for this, while mobile games are viewed as inferior due to being too easy to play – how can controlling with two fingers be as refined as using a keyboard and mouse? Take Vainglory as an example, a mobile MOBA game that theoretically possesses elements appealing to Koreans:
– Extremely impressive graphics
– Requires high strategy and skill
– Launched early with a grand tournament system in cooperation with OGN around 2015
However, Vainglory still failed in the Korean market. Of course, many factors contributed to this, but the very nature of the mobile platform is likely the biggest factor.
In conclusion: >70% of Wild Rift will likely follow the path of other mobile MOBA predecessors and fail in the Korean market. Especially because the Korean people love League of Legends so much, they will have conflicting feelings when it comes to Wild Rift, simply because their beloved game rich in skill on PC has been simplified on mobile, something they find very hard to accept!
Second destination: Europe and America, the cradle of League of Legends
This market is even more pessimistic for mobile MOBA games in general, and Wild Rift in particular, due to the cultural history of gaming influencing player behavior:
– Preference for PC and Console, especially passionate about AAA games (e.g., Assassin’s Creed, God of War…)
– Where to do the corresponding tasks
+ At work, work is done.
+ Going to a café, drink coffee; going to a restaurant, eat; going to a bar pub, drink & flirt.
+ Using public transport like buses and subways, if they touch their phones, they usually play games to kill time but in a vertical position (MOBA is horizontal), or watch movies, listen to music regardless of standing or sitting.
+ Only at home do they play games in the proper sense, and the proper sense here refers back to the bullet point above: playing PC or Console games, and the lowest they might touch mobile devices would be… PSP or Nintendo DS.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that Europeans and Americans don’t play mobile games; they do play, and quite a lot, for instance, Candy Crush (female) and Clash of Clans (male)… ironically, the mobile games they play lack the MOBA genre.
In conclusion: >90% of Wild Rift will fail in Europe and America, as the historical culture of Consoles & PCs has deeply ingrained itself into the bones of generations here, thus that behavior will be hard to change overnight, even if it’s Wild Rift. To be more objective, we must mention the exception of Fortnite, which, although not a MOBA, has a huge player base on mobile; however, unfortunately, Wild Rift cannot adopt the cross-platform model of Fortnite, meaning players on PC, Console, and Mobile can play together because Wild Rift is one way, while League of Legends on PC is another.
Third and Fourth destinations: China & Southeast Asia
– China – a key and fiercely competitive market: Wild Rift faces off against Honor of Kings – a giant that has defeated numerous other mobile MOBA games in a market with tremendous competition.
– Southeast Asia + Taiwan
+ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, etc.: Wild Rift competes with Mobile Legends: Bang Bang – the national game giant, which not only surpasses many other mobile MOBA games, including Vainglory despite launching earlier or Arena of Valor, Marvel Super War… but also dominates over all other game genres in this region.
+ Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan, etc.: Wild Rift competes with Arena of Valor – another national game that dominates in this region.
In conclusion: >70% of Wild Rift will fail in these markets, not only because Wild Rift is a latecomer but also due to the essence of the game, a topic to be addressed in the next article.
Other markets like India, Japan, South America… are essentially unimportant, because if the main markets fail, it’s likely that other places will also struggle to succeed.
I’m genuinely looking forward to those matchups with a conflicting mindset, wanting my predictions to be correct – that is, Wild Rift fails in every match just because my personal ego wants my prediction to be right, but at the same time, I also want my predictions to be completely wrong – that is, Wild Rift pulls off a spectacular comeback, breaks every record, and shatters all doubts & behavioral norms. But regardless of the outcome, healthy competition will always bring numerous positives, one of which is that we, the players, will have more event rewards, tournaments, and exciting content to follow and support!