The group stage of the largest League of Legends (LoL) tournament of the year, called the World Championship (Worlds), has reached its halfway point. The situation in the groups is extremely tense, promising an emotional explosion in the remaining matches. Tomorrow, the tournament will continue in Group A. Teams will compete in all 6 matches of each group in one day and must play tie-breaks to determine rankings if necessary.
Today, Riot has provided odds for teams to at least reach the tie-break round (meaning they either have to play a tie-break or go straight to the quarter-finals). All teams still have a chance, but the odds are not high for the bottom-ranked teams like the three representatives from North America and GAM Esports from the VCS.
In Group A, the dynamics of this group are considered the most unpredictable. Three teams, Edward Gaming, Fnatic, and T1, all have a 73.44% chance of reaching the tie-break match or higher. More importantly, they win and lose in a round-robin format, meaning that tiebreakers will play a crucial role in determining rankings.
For example, if all three teams finish the group stage with a 4-2 record, the team with the best tiebreaker will wait for the next match and will certainly secure first or second place in the group, while the other two teams with lower tiebreakers will have to play a tie-break first. As for Cloud9, the North American representative’s chances of reaching the playoffs are almost nonexistent as they must win three consecutive matches. The group will not have a scenario where one team has 6 absolute points while the other three finish with a 2-4 record.
In Group B, JD Gaming (JDG) is almost guaranteed a spot in the tie-break or to advance as they currently hold a 98.44% chance. The door for JDG to be eliminated is very low as they are dominating the rest of Group B. Damwon KIA is also trying to regain lost form, holding an 84.38% chance.
As for G2 Esports and Evil Geniuses, their chances are almost zero unless they achieve something miraculous. G2’s odds stand at 37.5% while EG’s are at 12.5%, but they must overcome the two giants, JD Gaming and Damwon KIA, to keep their hopes alive. This seems a bit too much for the international LoL community to hope for.
As for Group C, the second round of the group stage is truly exciting. Rogue currently holds a 3-0 record despite not being highly rated before the tournament, and this team has a 98.44% chance of at least reaching the tie-break. Dragon-X also holds an 84.38% chance, equal to the third seed from Korea, Damwon KIA.
Top Esports is the team that has disappointed the most this year, considered a contender for the championship but facing the possibility of being eliminated right from the group stage. However, the second round has not yet been played, and anything unexpected can still happen in Group C, including the possibility of Rogue, the leading team, being eliminated. As for GAM, they have been determined to have a 12.5% chance of reaching the tie-break, but their fate seems already predicted.
Group D showcases the devastating strength of Royal Never Give Up as they dominate the rest, deserving the expectations from the country of a billion people. Although they are the number one seed from Korea, Gen.G is underperforming with only an 84.38% chance of reaching the tie-break or higher.
As for CFO and 100 Thieves, they hold a respective 37.5% and 12.5% odds of reaching the tie-break or going straight into the quarter-finals. However, the dynamics of Group D are quite predictable, and the chances for these two teams to advance this year are almost nonexistent.
Tomorrow, the second round of the group stage of Worlds 2022 will continue, and the fate of the teams in Group A will be determined. The dynamics of this group are very unpredictable, so let’s continue to enjoy the atmosphere of the biggest League of Legends festival on the planet.